My final verdict on SCT seeds

After much brain-racking during the past several days, here is my final ballot for tonight’s Somerset County Tournament seeding meeting. There are several notable changes from the original ballot I cast with Friday’s notebook. Notice the ascent of big schools with bad records (Ridge and Bridgewater-Raritan) and the reshuffling of Franklin, Rutgers Prep and Immaculata among the No. 3, 4 and 5 spots. Each school's overall record is followed by its record against other Somerset County opponents.

1. Hillsborough (12-2, 6-0)
Two-time defending champion swept its way through the first round of Skyland Conference Delaware East Division play, including a one-point win against Watchung Hills. That victory plus Hillsborough’s legacy – eight finals appearances in the past nine seasons – makes this seed a no-brainer.
2. Watchung Hills (8-3, 4-2)
Last year’s top seed reached the semifinals before star player Megan Kopecki’s knee injury derailed hope of the school’s first-ever SCT title. With almost all key players from that team back this season, the Warriors have a second chance at history. This is the second straight easy selection. The next 14 are a guessing game.
3. Rutgers Prep (10-6, 0-0)
How does a team with no in-county exposure land the third seed? Having on your resume three straight trips to the finals and one of the most knowledgeable and experienced local coaches is a good start. Still, the Argonauts may be the tournament’s biggest wild card because of their talent and the match-up problems caused by their height.
4. Franklin (9-4, 4-3)
The resume was missing a quality win until this past week’s defeats of Immaculata and Watchung Hills, which helped negate an earlier hiccup against Montgomery. Bottom line, as usual, with regard to the Warriors: There is enough talent to win the whole tournament, but stringing together strong performances remains a challenge.
5. Immaculata (7-7, 5-3)
This is a good spot for the Spartans, whose record is misleading because of an overwhelming early-season schedule. In an unpredictable county, this is one team who seems to be beating the teams it is supposed to and losing to teams who are favored. Immaculata would benefit most from playing a second-round game Feb. 3 – the date by which teams need to have .500 records to qualify for the state tournament.
6. Somerville (11-2, 6-1)
All six county victories are against teams seeded ninth or lower, and the black mark is a 16-point home loss Saturday to Immaculata. Somerville reached the semifinals as the sixth seed last season and could do so again if its youthful core can group block out distractions. Senior star Caity Laub is going to be hungry to prove herself after a disappointing showing on Saturday’s grand stage.
7. Montgomery (5-8, 2-5)
A 1-5 start raised some concerns, but three straight wins righted the ship until a surprising loss to Bridgewater-Raritan. The Cougars played Immaculata tight on opening night, cruised past Ridge and upended Franklin, but have struggled against the Skyland Conference’s elite teams such as Hillsborough, Watchung Hills, North Hunterdon and Voorhees.
8. Bridgewater-Raritan (2-12, 1-5)
After losing their nucleus before the season started, the inexperienced and undersized Panthers simply have been overmatched by a daunting schedule. The play has been better of late with two wins in the past three games. One of those wins is against Montgomery, but it is not enough to put a 2-12 team ahead of a 5-8 team.
9. Ridge (4-11, 0-4)
Ridge was given the 14th seed last season and proved that – despite a poor record – big schools deserve higher seeds when it knocked off Mount St. Mary. For that reason, the Red Devils slip into the Top 10 this time around. Ridge looks offensively-challenged at times, but recorded its biggest win in two years Tuesday night against North Hunterdon.
10. North Plainfield (8-3, 3-1)
Maybe the most improved team in the county this season first started making noise with a rare 16-over-9 upset of Bernards in last year’s tournament. The move to the Skyland Conference Raritan Division and the return of Kiah Clark after a one-year absence from the team have done wonders for North Plainfield, which beat Bernards again and hung with Somerville.
11. Bernards (10-5, 2-2)
Senior Catherine Carr might be the best all-around player in the county and junior guard Lindsay Darvin has improved plenty, but there is still not enough balance here. Bernards was a buzzer-beating 3-pointer away from taking Somerville to overtime and only lost to North Plainfield by three.
12. Gill St. Bernard’s (11-1, 1-0)
The only concrete fact known about Gill St. Bernard’s is that it is better than last season’s team which lost to Manville in the opening round. The Knights avenged that loss Manville by 30 on Dec. 21. Other than that, this team is largely a high-scoring, blowout-heavy mystery beating up on an inferior schedule.
13. Pingry (7-5, 0-0)
At least when Bernards and Pingry were in the same conference there was a reference point. Pingry’s two losses against Morris Catholic – arguably the state’s best team – are a wash.
14. Mount St. Mary (4-9, 1-3)
The Mount Lions lost a close game to Bernards on opening night and never really recovered. Five of their nine losses are by 10 points or less.
15. Manville (5-9, 1-4)
The Mustangs are 5-4 in their past nine games, and earned a tournament win last season. Still, it has been a tough year for Manville, which has been undone by poor shooting and too many turnovers.
16. Bound Brook (6-10, 1-4)
The only thing separating Manville and Bound Brook right now is I was more impressed by Manville. Just one man’s view on one game. Means virtually nothing.

Check Friday’s podcast for my thoughts on the outcome as well as analysis of the opening round matchups.